Three-way fight in Kerala's Aranmula constituency: Will Sabarimala tip the scales?

On the banks of the Pamba River, Aranmula is no ordinary constituency. Home to the revered Parthasarathy temple, the legendary boat race, the valla sadya, and the Aranmula Kannadi, it is a place where culture flows as naturally as the river beside it. But what defines modern Aranmula equally is its spirit of resistance. When a private company proposed an international airport on its paddy fields and wetlands, the people pushed back hard, and finally, the project was scrapped.BJP has fielded Kummanam Rajasekharan, one of the prominent faces of the airport agitation. CPM’s Veena George is seeking a hat-trick of victories. Congress has fielded Abin Varkey, a young first-time candidate. Both George and Varkey are members of the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church. George, who transitioned from journalism to politics, has risen quickly through the ranks. She hasheld Aranmula for LDF in the last two elections, no small feat in a constituency that isn’t traditionally a Left stronghold. This time, however, she contests as the incumbent health minister, which cuts both ways. LDF govt is leaning hard on its achievements in the health sector, but the ministry has also faced sharp criticism over recurring medical negligence cases and inadequate infrastructure in govt hospitals. George is campaigning on development, pointing to ongoing projects including the Aban flyover, which she says will transform Pathanamthitta town. Her opponents, meanwhile, have used the inauguration of unfinished projects as a campaign weapon against her.BJP, despite listing Aranmula as an ‘A class’ priority constituency, took time to settle on Rajasekharan, considering other names before arriving at his. Rajasekharan’s clean image has brought a new life into the party’s rank and file, but it remains to be seen how effectively that momentum translates at the grassroots across such a vast constituency. The party’s vote share in Aranmula has swung dramatically— from 10,227 in 2011 to a peak of 37,906 in 2016, then back down to 21,099 in 2021. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, K Surendran polled 50,497 votes from the segment, a number that keeps BJP’s hopes alive.Varkey, a Kozhencherry native and national secretary of Youth Congress, has spent a decade defending Congress on public platforms. This is his first election. His entry has brought fresh energy to UDF, and he has been vocal on the health negligence issue, directly targeting Veena’s ministerial record.UDF’s confidence also draws from its recent electoral performance. Though LDF won the last two assembly elections, UDF held the upper hand in Lok Sabha and local body polls. It currently controls Pathanamthitta municipality and nine grama panchayats, compared to BJP’s two and LDF’s one. Most of these local bodies were earlier with LDF.Much of the outcome hinges on Rajasekharan’s vote tally. The central question is if Sabarimala sentiment moves voters, will it benefit Rajasekharan or split votes toward Varkey? Aranmula is home to A Padmakumar, the accused in a gold theft case. Both LDF and NDA are pressing CPM on why no internal action has been taken, a question that could stoke anti-incumbency sentiment.